Senate Community Affairs Legislation Committee, , 9:16:07 to 9:24:20
Senator Ruston questions the modelling behind proposed changes to the private health insurance rebate for over 65s and the projected impact on public hospital demand.
Topics: Health, Government spending
Speakers: Senator The Hon Anne Ruston, Ms Sonja Stewart, Unknown Speaker, Mr Ross Hawkins, Senator Ellie Whiteaker
Um the can you confirm that the number of people that were expected to drop their health care cover
as a result of the private health insurance changes to over 65?
Hi there. So just back on to um uh private health insurance or onto a private health insurance rebate for over 65s. Um I'm just keen to understand the figure that has been quoted constantly in the media by the government and the minister um was 44,000 people. Is that correct? Celia Street Deputy Secretary system strategy correct? Yes, that's correct. And am I correct in assuming that that 44,000 was for the year 2028 to 29? Okay. Am I correct in that the modelling for the subsequent year, 2930 with 78,000 people? So could you tell me what was the number for the year 2030-31?
Senator Ross Hawkins, First and Secretary for Food Australia Division, that's beyond the forward estimates. So I'll have to take that on notice. Sorry, Senator, I'm not sure what you're holding.
Um well, you you haven't provided me uh you you've redacted in the FOI,
Senator, you would take that on eight, Senator.
When would you be able to provide that information? Because I have asked for that information at hearings on this particular bill, and at that time you refused to provide them for me, It's subsequently been evidence that you do have them. So are you prepared to provide us with the information on the estimates for the out years? Because I've just said to you the 78,000 we found in a briefing note that wasn't redacted, although it is redacted in the table that you've got. So how far out have you modeled this? I mean, it must be modelled out for 10 years because the savings have been booked for 10 years at 11 billion dollars, weren't they?
So, Senator, in terms of the the model, and I can get my colleague to talk about the model. Um the reason we re um we refer to the figure that we do refer to is because we do think that's the most reliable figure to be using, knowing that the the it gives you the full full year in terms of full year impact in terms of the the change and the future years as you get further along, we'll be updating the model with the as we understand the behaviours and we understand the other indications around income and those elements. Tend to talk about those other figures in terms of what's available in the model. Yes, we provide it into future years. But what I would say is that I I would be relying less on those figures as we would update them. As we see behavioural change, we see the income changes and the rest.
But you're asking the Parliament, or the government is asking the Parliament to make a decision on something that's going to have an ongoing impact past the 44,000 year that you're referring to. You tried very hard not to show us the 78,000 because if you'd been in you know intending to provide the 78,000 in the Fred the FOI 2026 number 3324, you wouldn't have redacted the information out of the documentation that you've provided us. The only place that we found it was left in the last line of a briefing note that we found the 78,000. Your aunt, you the government asked us to pass a bill, which subsequently the Parliament chose not to, I might say, but was asking us to pass a bill that had savings projected into out for 10 years. But you're saying to me that we shouldn't, we should just completely disregard any figures that you've you've putting out apart from the first year, and yet Minister Butler last week was out there saying that he'd asked for debate on this bill. So I'm asking you, as the officials in front of me for that debate today. And so I'll ask again is it possible for me to please have the figures of the number of people who are going to you project will drop their private health insurance into the out years? We know it's 44,000 in the year 2829. We know that it's been projected at 78,000 in the year 2930. Could you please provide me with the remainder of the years that you have modelled this for?
Yeah. So I think Mr. Hawkins has taken that on notice in terms of the provision of the United States.
When would I be able to receive that data?
I'll have to check that with the team in terms of the how quickly would be able to do that, Senator.
Okay. So in the same data that was provided in this freedom of information. Um I can say more than if if you're back tomorrow morning, so if you can get it overnight, that's fine. Um the same freedom of information. You provide a table that said that your estimated additional patient days in public hospitals was uh it came up for in the year 2829 was 153,241 days. Um what is that figure in 2930?
Senator, I'm gonna have to take that on notice.
Um that's in these, the that's not past the forward estimates, that's in the current.
Agreed, agreed, but I need to get make sure that I mean if you can table the information you've got.
This is the information that you gave us for freedom of information.
So if it's that is the document this within the freedom of information.
So it's freedom of information 2026 number 3324.
Okay. So if you can happy to come back to you on that, Senator, let's pull up the FOI to make sure that we're just making sure, because as you're aware, there is a range of tables and information that's been provided through kind of our kind of the inquiries that we've had and provide information we've provided you to make sure we're providing the right information.
Okay, so what I would like to know is what is the estimation from the department in relation to reported utilisation rate, the additional patient days in public hospitals in the out years, so from 2930 onwards that is projected to increase as a result of the measure that was proposed.
I'd like that information for you, Senator.