Senate Education and Employment Legislation Committee, , 8:15:52 to 8:23:52
The opposition challenges the Minister for Education's claim that record numbers of Australians started university degrees this year. The department defends the statement as a projection based on preliminary data, while senators argue it misrepresents actual historical records.
Topics: Education, Integrity
Speakers: Senator Matt O'Sullivan, Dr Fleur Champion De Crespigny, Mr. Tony Cook, Ms. Jasmina Joldic, Unknown Speaker, Senator Marielle Smith, Speaker 33
>> We may ask for a short pause between we'll see how we go. Thanks. Um, okay. On uh on the 13th of October this year in the House and then again in a press release two days later, the Minister for Education said that, and I quote, "This year more Australians than ever before have started a university degree." That wasn't true. In fact, when the this by a future campus, they claimed
>> Um, thank you senator for uh for the question. Um, my response would be to that uh no the um there is accurate but I will go to Dr. with Crepney to um give you a bit of more update on um how the data works and um what's behind the numbers um in that in that uh media statement that you're talking about.
>> Thank you. Thank you for the for the question on that. Um Senator, the the minister did not mislead the house. Those data are actually available in our preliminary there was a bit of additional work to project those to the the full year value. But if you take a look at the preliminary data, you can see that 2026 undergraduate commencements are ahead of where they were pre in previous years. I don't think that's it is fair to characterize that as misleading. Well,
I'm I'm only asking because because it's >> to me it's black and white. The minister said this this year more Australians than ever than ever before have started a university degree. But as future campus said, the minister's statement was incorrect and total domestic commencements for 2026 remain below 2021 levels. Future camps also said, however, the minister would be right if he stated that more Australians are forecast to commence an undergraduate degree this year than ever before. can you deal with that discrepancy?
>> Well, um we probably should have included um that word potentially. >> A very different meaning. Uh well yes, but I think it's also worth um bearing in mind the longerterm trends. The 2021 years were associated with very high enrollments due to the pandemic related border closures. So we've been in a state of flux with enrollments in the sector and it's it's of my view that that those years really should be considered outliers in a trend analysis. And so if you look further back, you see um you know a a trend now of um of of increasing growth. Um and so I think you know uh this year when we look forward with the enrollments um it is you know it's pretty clear to the department that we're going to be exceeding those pandemic uh related highs.
your your statement just there provides that caveat about the trend and about the co years but the minister didn't make that statement at all. Uh it didn't include anything uh to to couch what he was saying. Um I mean we can all make mistakes. Uh it's it's whether or not we're prepared to admit it. So should the minister uh correct the the record and and uh go back to the house and and apologize and correct make sure his statement was accurate because as you pointed out uh he could have said that more Australians was was said by a future campus that more Australians are forecast. I mean there's a very different meaning if you say that there are versus you know it's forecasted to be I mean it's you know we we can all we can we read the weather forecast each day and sometimes they get it wrong and it's not what to you know what actually happens they have very different meanings don't they
>> certainly wouldn't the department's not going to make commentary about what the minister should or shouldn't do you wouldn't expect us to do in relation to that I think the point we've made is that based on our data there's very data would indicate that there'll be more students uh starting uh domestically this year than ever before.
>> Secretary, are you prepared to tell this committee and evidence that as of the 13th of October, more Australians than uh before had started a university
degree? Senator, I've already said just a minute ago what I'm there to say, which said based on the data that we've got, it's our expectation there'll be more students in 2026 than ever there has been in relation to smarting domestic undergraduate. That's right.
>> It's still a projection though.
>> Well, it's always a projection. That's how the data works for us because they start through various times throughout
>> I didn't ask about expectations. I asked have more Australians than ever had started.
>> So,
>> so you don't have you don't have the commencement data.
>> So, commencing happens through various times of the year. It doesn't just happen at the start of the year. Commencing can happen mid year. Various aspects of that. So, my statement
the data shown in the future campus uh report which uh I just sorry I'm thank you for that assistance uh which um which I've just tabled uh reportedly show domestic Undergraduate commencements commencing students between 2016 and 27 with a projection for 2026 shows that the highest year on record for undergraduate commencements for which we have actual records and not projections was 2021 and in that year the figure was two 290,9001.
>> Uh based on the information you've just given us that that's correct. Uh I also
on your website um there's information in relation to preliminary trends in higher education and it shows that on the department website that uh other than this underlying data file uh which you can download from that page that the data shows that there were 971,6 638 domestic students but in 2026 there are 942 111 domestic students. Have you got that
>> I don't have the preliminary
today. Sorry.
>> Thank you pardon.
>> I don't have that that underlying data with me today. Senator sorry. No but
>> the um I'll just we've got copies of it here. You haven't got that you don't sort of keep that in your files. Can we table that as well, please?
>> If you distribute it and just check that it's able to be
>> tabled. Um, all right. Well, what I might come back so you've got that in front of you that that'll be fairer for you to be able to answer those questions. >> Um, and I'll I'll deal with a a different issue and then come back to it.