Senate Education and Employment Legislation Committee [Part 2], , 1:35:22 to 2:02:58
The Australian Tertiary Education Commission discusses workforce modeling, student caps, and the harmonization of vocational and higher education.
Topics: Education, Employment
Speakers: Professor Barney Glover, Senator Paul Scarr, David Turvey, Speaker 2, Speaker 16, Professor Stephen Duckett, Tony Cook
>> Um thank you very much. That concludes um our questions for outcome two. So, thank you to those officials and we're now bringing a tech to the table,
>> I do. Thank you. >> I'll leave the table while the agencies are up. But thank you to all the senators and the chairs.
>> Oh, you don't come you don't come back.
>> I'll be in the room. I just won't be at the table. My deputies will be. But just thank you to all the senators for the respect they've shown the department while we've been at the table. I appreciate that.
Um, welcome Professor Glover. Nice to see you in this capacity. Um, would you like to make an opening statement tonight?
>> Uh, chair, if I may. Yes, a brief opening statement. Uh, Professor Barney Glover, chief commissioner, the Australian Tertiary Education Commission. Thank you, chair, for the opportunity to provide an opening statement. I'd like to acknowledge that this is the Australian Tertiary Education Commission's first appearance at Senate Estimates with our own session on the program uh for which we are most grateful. A tech now has its full cohort of five commissioners in place with three of our ongoing commissioners present today including Professor Mark Rose, our First Nations Commissioner, Professor Steven Duckett, uh and myself as Chief Commissioner. We also have our chief executive David Turvey here. We welcome the opportunity to respond to questions from the committee regarding the important work of the ATH. I would also note the passage of relevant legislation with the university's accord opening the doors of opportunity act 2026 which amends the university's accord Australian tertiary education commission act of 2026 and now provides a tech with decision-making powers in relation to the allocation of domestic and international student places. I also note the announcement of the higher education support total allocation pool determination 2026 by Minister Clare earlier today. This is an important step in that allows the A tech to finalize the first round of the missionbased compacts with 42 table A and B providers for 2027. The negotiations that have taken place over the last couple of months with the universities have been very positive with extensive discussions about each university's mission, strategies, and plans and how they relate to the A Tech's priorities for the sector. We will likely release the final compacts in mid- November subject to data finalization. And the Ache will now work with the two new table B providers, the Australian University of Theology and Alfa Cruises University College to negotiate their missionbased compacts for 2027. The process illustrates the stewardship function of the ATH in understanding the unique missions of our universities, the challenges they face, and the basis for investment in them through the allocation of additional domestic student places. This highlights the move from an essentially transactional financial engagement to a deeper mission-based negotiation. Another important milestone for the new ATH was achieved today with the release of our efficient costing and pricing consultation paper titled towards a costing and pricing framework for commonwealth supported places in universities. This is a significant step in the development of ATECH's advice to government on options for the pricing of higher education qualifications and reflects our commitment to deep engagement with the sector in the formulation of highquality evidence-based advice to government. Professor Duckett is renowned as a renowned expert in pricing and is leading this work and can answer questions on it today. Bringing expertise like Professor Duckett to bear in complex policy issues like pricing is another feature of the ATH model as is the very important work supporting first nations peoples in tertiary education that will be led by our inaugural first nations commissioner. The ATH has recently taken on the responsibility for providing advice to government on the higher education standards framework the threshold standards. We have established a legislative con consultation forum to ensure expert advice informs the AEX views to government on the threshold standards through the higher education standards committee. We've been recently engaging the sector on questions about how the threshold standards could accommodate a greater focus on research and national security as well as considering how to facilitate specialization in research for universities that may seek to do so. We are also currently consulting with the sector on the next statutory statement of strategic priorities for 2027. This is a foundational document because it frames the discussions we will have with universities in 2027 on missionbased compacts that will span 2028 to 2031. This is another important feature of the new model. a four-year compact time frame providing greater certainty and a longer planning horizon for universities in their relationship with government, contributing to sustainability and stability for the higher education sector and stronger and more coherent collaboration with the vet sector. Finally, we have open consultation on our work plan engaging with the sector on the urgent areas of priority attention for the ATH in 2027 28. Thank you chair for the opportunity to address the committee. Thank you,
Professor Glover. Senator Scarr. Uh,
>> thank you and thank you, Professor Glover, and congratulations to uh the other commissioners. Thank you for your service uh in relation to this important role. And Professor Glover, I enjoyed very much your testimony when we were uh having the inquiry in relation to the uh university's accord opening uh the door bill. I um gave me every confidence in terms of your experience and expertise. And given that experience and expertise, do you have any reflections on this difference between the national planning level for international students of 295,000 and the fact that it appears at the end of the year we're going to undersshoot that by 50,000 and what that means for universities.
>> Well, one of the Thank you for your comments, Senator. Um, one of the key aspects that we incorporated in our conversations with universities in the negotiation of missionbased compacts for 2027, even though for 2027 we're not responsible for allocating net overseas student commencements, NOSK places for 27, but we nevertheless engaged with universities to uh discuss with them their international strategies to understand uh the type of conversation we'd have with them in 2028, in 2027 for 28 31. >> So it was a it was a matter of some discussion about how they were tracking in relation to uh visa processing and number of students arriving. Uh as you pointed out of course there are challenges for some universities in the sector due to a downturn in the number of international student commences. The quality and integrity of the Australian international education system is of paramount importance to the government and uh and that of course is an important consideration. As the secretary pointed out earlier uh some universities are tracking better than others in terms of visa processing and admissions
>> which presumably means the corollery of that is that some are tracking worse.
There are some universities that are seeing a significant downturn and one of the conversations that we were having with them senator in anticipation of the discussion for the 27 to the 28 to 31 compact was what is what are their strategies emerging to deal with what is a downturn in international student uh commencement load and how will that be managed over time and I think those universities are very engaged with the challenge of both managing what will be a different profile for them in many cases for international students alongside of the conversation with the ATH as the secretary pointed out a moment ago as we discussed the allocation of increasing numbers of additional domestic student places through the managed growth funding system alongside needsbased funding for equity students. So we're in a situation where there's investment in the domestic side of higher education and management of the stabilization of international student profiles. Senator.
>> Okay. Uh did the universities request additional places for 2027 in um in discussions with them? Uh I've received some advice that the universities were seeking an additional 83,140 additional places for 2027. Are you
>> Yes, Senator, we're aware of it. In the initial uh uh draft missionbased compacts that universities provided to us, they indicated their uh their needs in terms of additional places for 2027. Uh that did uh account for a significant number of places. It involved though not just places for new commencements because we'll see growth we anticipate in higher education next year as we've seen growth in higher education this year in commence load. It was also additional load in some cases for universities that were underenrolled and it was also additional load for some universities that were overenrolled to address the underfunding of marginally funded places. So there was a significant request for places.
>> It's it's it's all coming back to me now that complicated issues from the bill. It makes my head hurt a bit but um your evidence was extremely um well put. Uh so it's there's an available pool of approximately 37,000 isn't there for 2027. Is that correct?
>> The additional um places available now the minister has made the determination on the what's called the total allocation pool which is 624,590 places next year. That is approximately 35 36,000 places more than were utilized in 2026 this year. So yes, there are additional places to distribute
>> and and those are and this comes back to the point you made. These are uh how can I put it? Genuine additional student capacity rather than uh existing commitments or conversion of over over enrollments is that correct?
>> Uh
>> how would you describe these 37,000?
>> It's a it's a good question Senator. Some of the uh 36,000 places will be uh provided to universities for growth in commensal load. So new commensal load places. Some of it will be used by universities to address overenrollment. So to convert marginally funded to fully funded places and some will be used to support the universities that still remain below their funding floor to compensate them while we transition those universities to the new system. So it's spread across if you like three categories as well as some load for uh things like um regional university study hubs that we support.
>> So what was the first category? The >> Yeah. So that seems to be the growth element. How much how many in that
category? >> We're finalizing data at the moment because it depends a little bit on the finalization of verified data which we don't yet have. uh but I would anticipate growth in the system of somewhere between 12 and 15,000 additional places in commence load next year Senator but we'll know more in the early part of next year when universities provide us with more of their data on their admission processes
in 2027. So, professor, is that 12,000 to 15,000 figure is that the it's a range that we should be comparing to the 83,140 additional places requested? Is it is that the comparing apples to apples in terms of
>> It's not quite No, Senator. The 83,000 included a a significant request from universities that have significant overenrollment. >> Yep. >> For support to convert that overenrollment from marginally funded to
fully funded. How much of the 83,140 fell into
>> I'd have to take that on notice. I don't have that figure in front of me,
>> Okay. Could you take that notice?
>> Yes, of course.
>> Uh has atic and I I understand it's early days. Have have you given any advice to government yet in relation to additional funding that may be required to meet the objectives the universities have have given in terms of uh increased
Well, it's a matter for government to determine the total allocation pool for 28 to 31, Senator. So, that's a matter for government. Um, we are certainly at the moment uh looking at rolling out the 2027 total allocation pool. The government will make a determination on the next tap. I think under the act by the 31st of May next year and that will give us certain and under the act of course the the tap can't decrease from one year to the next. So we anticipate significant growth and the minister's on the record is indicating uh significant additional places over the next four years and beyond.
>> Yeah. So the as I understand it the ambition under the university accord is for 55% of young Australians to hold a university qualification by 2050. Is that correct?
>> By 2050 uh minister the actual target is an attainment target. It is 80% of the working age population to have a tertiary qualification and at the moment we're working through the balance between higher education and vocational education and training but it's around about 55% with the higher education qualification but that's a matter that we're working through in more detail at the moment. That was one of the early uh forecasts in the accord process.
>> Okay, that's thank you for that. I've series of questions I would like to ask. Now, I'm not sure how you're going to go with this because I'm going to um ask you a question about jobs and skills >> So what would tell us maybe just for the benefit of hand s you might just say what your previous role was professor.
>> I was previously the jobs and skills Australia commissioner
>> right for how long?
>> Uh for a little over two years.
>> Okay. Uh so as I understand it earlier this week uh your previous agency your >> uh came out with a report which identified a potential over supply of university graduates relative to trades. uh and I want to quote to you from the report said there is potential potential misalignment between student demand for higher education and employment demand uh have you had a chance to have a look at that report and consider the modeling in that report it might have even been considered commenced under you uh professor I'm not sure but uh interested in uh any views you have with respect to that uh that observation.
>> Thank you, Senator. Yeah, that work began when I was the JSA commissioner and when uh Mr. Turvey was the JSA um chief executive.
>> Enjoy working for him.
>> Um and it's based on some very important modeling of growth in employment in Australia over the next 5 to 10 years and some very interesting modeling that David commissioned, sorry, Mr. Turvey Commission uh to look at what that modeling would generate if we uh we changed some of the input parameters around the profile the post-secary education profile of Australians. >> Yep. uh and when you do that you see some reccalibration between uh higher education qualification demand and vocational education and training demand and JSA continues to do that very important modeling and it shows that in that unconstrained uh context we will need more people with vocational education and training and slightly less than might have been anticipated in higher ed but overall as I think the JSA report uh makes very clear Senator we need significant growth in both vocational education and training and in higher education. It's something both Minister Giles and Minister Clare have been saying frequently. I think it's one of the challenges for Australia. We talk about >> parity of esteem senator between the two sectors. We need to encourage young people into trades and there are great examples of that around Australia. But equally we need to see growth in higher education and particularly in the case of higher education to attract more students from educationally disadvantaged backgrounds equity students to participate so we have some chance of reaching that uh that very um ambitious attainment target for 2050. So yes, aware of the work. I think it's a very important modeling senator, but it doesn't, I think, subtract from uh the very clear need to increase significantly the number of people in both higher ed and vet. The balance between them uh is something that we need to do some more detailed analysis
>> Okay. So do you have any any views with respect to the balance between them? What what should be the target balance?
uh I senator I think 5545 which is the figure you quoted earlier and of course we need to to appreciate that we're also entering a period where you've got generative AI you've got changes to the labor market isn't >> it's another potential area of of impact and you also will have more flexible qualifications you'll have lifelong learning as a much stronger component of the future than we see now so the the blend of vocational training and higher red might also change significantly in the future. So, it's hard to make predictions about it, but I certainly see a balance between our vocational education training and higher ed as a desirable outcome, but we need growth significantly in both. Senator.
>> Yeah, I'm just trying to get my head around growth in both when you you're um you're trying to balance the proportions, but don't um if you if you got anything else you can um any other thoughts or information that you you could provide on that
>> would all be referenced to the JSA
report. I um
I could offer one brief thing. David Chvy, chief executive officer that the figures you're quoting are proportions of the labor market. They're not absolute numbers of people. >> So it's it's the share of the labor market that has vet vet and high education qualifications. So you can still have growth in both and but the but the proportions might might differ.
>> No, I understand that. But that there's also the risk of cannibalization of one from the other.
>> Absolutely. And that's one of the key reasons why we're very focused on tertiary harmonization as a as a policy
>> Understood. Um, professor, you use and you you do have a wonderful turn of phrase. Um, I might use some of your in an unconstrained context, what is an unconstrained context? In this context,
>> it might be a a wise moment to ask Mr. Turvey, who is an economist, to explain that particular characteristic. [clears throat]
>> Okay. Um Sen Senator what the modeling the modeling is based on a computable general equivalent model of the Australian economy which is uh run by Victoria University. Essentially it produces projections of the likely uh employment in the in the Australian economy based on the demand required by businesses and and industry. Um and the way the modeling works is it projects uh that demand what employers are anticipating to need for the production um side of the economy and then it looks at the supply of labor based on the qualifications that people have and how people move through the education training system into the labor market. And what the model does is it brings those two together and converges to an equilibrium employment projection. That's the mechanics of the modeling. What we did in that modeling when I was working at Jobs and Skills Australia was we essentially said what happens if you turn off this that supply constraint and just work out what would happen if you if you could supply the demand side of the lab the labor market and that just showed that there would be a slight rebalancing of the proportion of the lab market that would have vet qualss versus higher education quals.
>> Okay. So the
>> so the unconstraint the language around unconstrained >> the constraint in the model is the supply of labor based on expected qualification utilization.
>> Okay. And when we're talking about the 54 55 45 split it's a split within the 80% cohort that we need to >> to get advanced qualifications. Yeah.
And I think the JSA work is suggesting is it 5545 is it 5248 we need to do more work on this senator to be uh to be able to give some more detailed advice to government
>> but but when we talk about slight rebalancing I mean we're talking about in absolute terms we're talking about tens of thousands of people that's correct isn't it >> how what sort of quantum of people
>> uh I would like
>> 140,000 or something moving from one port to the other
>> probably a better question to put to JSA senator your next estimates, I think.
>> Okay. All right. Uh, that was a polite prompt. Thank you. so I've just got two more questions. Um, why does the National Credit Recognition Framework initially focus on recognizing TA qualifications for entry into university rather than the reverse?
Well, the national credit recognition framework, it's a it's a good question actually, Senator, because um reverse articulation arrangements, that is recognition of higher education in vocational education training is also a focus uh of attention in the long term in relation to tertiary harmonization and the work of the tertiary system advisory council. uh but the initial focus for many universities in the system is how can we provide uh more seamless more systematic more block credit arrangements for students who have completed a diploma or certificate for in TA system. So they have a more seamless entry to higher education and and you may know from the relevant background consultation papers on this senator that we see great productivity benefits here and equity benefits and also links to national priorities through this. So national credit recognition framework I think will be an important way of setting for the system uh more seamless movement from vet into higher ed. And I think we also need to be focused on how do we ensure we have the higher ed into vet. A lot of students complete a higher ed qualification and then go and do a vet qualification helps them in the labor market. Gives them the practical skills they need. Well, we need to make sure they get the appropriate level of recognition. So, it's certainly on our agenda to consider both directions for credit recognition.
>> Okay. Look, I might um I might just leave it there. I might just ask your colleagues though if they had anything um they wanted to add in relation to the discussion we've we've we've just had just to give you an opportunity if you've got any observations.
>> Uh thanks Senator Steven Ducket Commissioner. I mean I think this credit recognition stuff is extraordinarily important and you're right the the reverse articulation is is also uh on our agenda. uh my main background is in health policy and the the the movement from enrolled nurses into registered nurses for example training is something that's really important in the health sector. So thank you for raising those issues.
>> Okay. And uh, Professor Rose, uh,
>> Senator, can I just say that um, in Aboriginal education there, I could name you five very significant professors that were only allowed to go to TA in the early days of our entry into education. Absolutely. I can name um, if you'd like me to um, but um, the import TA has been a catalyst for our people to move in. That's why I'm really curious about the harmonization and I'm really excited about its potential. But for our people, our first entree was into TA education.
>> okay.
>> I'm excited by the the nuance in the ache.
>> Excellent. Good on you. Oh, well, all the best um to your team. >> Thank you, Senator. >> Okay. I'll put the rest on notice. Thank you.
>> Thank you, Senator. Um, thank you, Professor Glover, and thank you to the team from ATH. It's lovely to have you your first estimates officially. >> Um we'll just suspend for 30 seconds to one minute as au takes the table. Thank you. Um I'd like to welcome