Senate Economics Legislation Committee, , 1:23:29 to 1:28:29
Examination of Treasury modelling regarding the projected crossover where green exports are expected to exceed fossil fuel exports by 2032.
Topics: Climate change, Emissions reduction, Exports
Speakers: Senator Susan McDonald, Dr Angelia Grant, Jenny Wilkinson
Um we've spoken before at estimates about uh modelling, uh particularly Australia's net zero transformation treasury modelling and analysis that was released by Treasury. Um we spoke to about the crossover on the uh the decline, the projected decline in fossil fuel exports and the increase in green exports.
Yes, I would call that.
Um I want to revisit that because I specifically asked Dr. Johnson from Revenue Group about the impact of that modelling. Um whilst I understand we're in macro, I I you know I could see your alarm that I might be the wrong group, but I don't want to miss the relevant section. So I just want to come back to this point that we have modelling from a part of Treasury that's showing that fossil fuel exports will be overtaken by green exports. Um from the graph, it looked to be about 2032 to me, but I just want to confirm if you have a year.
Okay, Senator, let me see whether Dr Grant, can you help the Senator?
So I think uh Senator, I have found the chart you are referring to, and you are correct. I don't know the exact date, but it does look like the crossover occurs around 2032.
Okay. So Treasury representatives from revenue group directed me to the updated intergenerational report, which hadn't been released at that time. So uh as a as a guide for the impact of net zero on Australia's economy, specifically when I asked about the modelling behind these forecast replacements of fossil fuels by green exports, um Ms. Brown uh said that the intergenerational report would specifically address impacts on revenue sources, because that's what I'm interested in. Where's the money coming from? Revenue sources from climate change and also the opportunities from climate change. That was in February uh 2026 estimates. But when I've gone back and looked at the 2026 intergenerational report, it claims that Treasury modelling for Australia's net zero plan, released in 2025, found that Australia's plan will support continued economic growth. Australia's exports were projected to grow over time with declining global demand for fossil fuels counterbalanced by the emergence of new renewable energy export markets. So my question is that where is the modelling or evidence that Treasury is relying on for this claim? Because the intergenerational report is pointing back to this Treasury modelling. Um that there is no further detail in the intergenerational report around Treasury modelling, uh around modelling. Uh it's we're now in this circular, circular cycle, but there's been no impact on revenue forecasts because they're pointing to the updated intergenerational report.
So, Senator, let's let's see if we can let's see if we can help you. I've got um Ms. Di Marco here from Revenue Group. Um she's not representing revenue group here, so we'll see how she can go and she might we might need to come back to it at Revenue Group and the modelling. So would it be useful just for you to be so what specifically is your question?
My my specific question is what modelling or evidence is Treasury relying on for this claim that fossil fuel exports will have been exceeded by green exports by 2032, uh and then I'll follow up with the revenue side of that.
Okay, so Senator You are correct that this is scenario modelling that was released in September of 2025 as part of the government's announcement on the net zero plan. The modelling or the lines in the chart that you're referring to are based on three different scenarios, which I think you know, so I I won't labour the point. But the baseline scenario uh accords with the government's net zero plan commitments, and it's an orderly transition to net zero by 2050. Based on the model projections and all that needs to move in the economy in order to meet the net zero commitments, these are the scenarios that we've published, and they're the same uh as we published in the intergenerational report. So they are not different to what was published in net zero.