Senate Economics Legislation Committee, , 1:33:28 to 1:39:21
Comparison of Treasury's long-term projections with ASEAN energy outlooks that suggest continued high demand for coal in the region.
Topics: Climate change, Fossil fuels, Trade policy
Speakers: Jenny Wilkinson, Senator Susan McDonald, Dr Angelia Grant, Unknown Speaker
So Senator, I I don't know what the implications of the report you're talking about from ASEAN countries has for the modelling. The modelling that we conducted and we released in September of last year drew upon a very wide range of international sources and estimates. Um I mean we drew heavily on the International Energy Agency that tries to look globally at these trends. Um any modelling exercise is a point in time exercise. Um in any modelling exercise, there are assumptions that you have to make about a whole range of different things. Um modelling exercise is a is a predictor of the future. It is a it it it is it is an attempt to try and estimate based on the available information at that time what the likely future scenario looks like. That's what we're trying to do in that modelling exercise. Um I am sure that over time, as we um uh as we you know, as as the world unfolds, as technology unfolds and technology, you know, we can never predict exactly where technology is going to go, but as these things change, then um we would come back to modelling and make an assessment as to whether there are changes in in our projections. I don't know, Dr. Grant might have a view as to whether there's anything significant that's changed since September of last year uh in relation to the key drivers and assumptions under our modelling report. Dr. Grant, do you have anything?
I would simply say, Senator, that the all of the global assumptions are set out in the technical appendix on page 16. So you are correct. There has been a range of new information, some of it global, some of it domestic. We have not updated the modelling in a holistic sense for all new information since September of 2025.
Okay, uh Chair, my last question, thank you. So uh I'm wondering if DISER was involved with the generation or the construction of the intergeneral generational report, because DISER is certainly, I think, less fanciful than the net zero report, and the intergenerational report, of course, just points back to that treasury modelling. But it would seem to me that we've got our near neighbours are saying that their demand for coal is going to triple, that uh it is a major import uh income earner for Australia. Treasury is is budgeting and and uh doing modelling around expenditure on Australian government spending. Um but where is the the really tight disciplined work happening on where the money comes from? Because unless we have a good understanding and a realistic understanding, then we aren't we getting all this wrong. We're just guaranteeing growing debt uh for Australia. I I think this is really important. Where will you update your modelling to reflect this more realistic scenario of fossil fuels, coal and gas not declining, but indeed growing?
So these sorts of long-run projections do need to be updated from time to time. Um they they typically that the the key drivers of these outcomes don't vary a lot from one month to the next. Um I don't have a time frame for you, uh Senator McDonald, um, about when you know there would be an update to that modelling exercise. That's not something which we are in the process of doing at the moment, but we are um we we continue to work closely with agencies uh across the service, and we certainly consulted extremely widely. In fact, I think all relevant agencies were consulted deeply in the development of the um uh the modelling report uh that we uh that we published in September. And um uh but again, as I say, I think the only thing I can say, Senator, is that there is a difference between trying to think about what some of these really long-term uh shifts and trends uh are likely to be and um the the shorter term uh uh like kind of our assessment of what's actually happening in the budget, what we what we know is happening to tax receipts, what we predict is happening to tax receipts over the over the um forward estimates and and the medium term. But I think the point you're making, Senator, is that there is a very I think the point you're making, Senator, which is an absolutely reasonable one, is that the net zero um transition is a very significant transition for Australia and for the world. That's uh and I I think that that's that's clear in the the modelling report that we've done.
Oh, okay, to be two set data sets. DISA, reality, and Treasury, the the agency which we I always think of as being dry and and reliable.
I don't think there's a difference of view between us and DISA. Dr. Grant.
So on page 16 of the technical appendix and 17, it references, so we used at the time, so it's previous DISER work, but at the time we used the DISER projections on coal, on oil, on critical minerals, uh on iron ore, uh, iron and steel, and it goes on. So just to say that they were the DISER projections at the time that we did this modelling. No doubt DISA will have updated those projections. We haven't updated the modelling, the the net zero modelling for any updated projections, domestic or global.
Thanks, J.