Senate Economics Legislation Committee [Part 2], , 2:51:52 to 2:55:25
Discussion on how the Department of Industry supports DCCEEW with resource sector activity data and five-year forecasts to inform annual national emissions projections.
Topics: Emissions reduction, DCCEEW
Speakers: Senator Susan McDonald, Speaker 19, Dom English, Unknown Speaker
so I want to ask you if the September 2026 REQ coal, oil, and gas volumes used by DQ for its emissions projections and safeguards mechanisms analysis. Sorry. Are is it the September REQ numbers that are used by DQ for its emissions projections and safeguard mechanism analysis?
>> So we do support uh DQ in developing their emissions projections. Uh we do support DQ in an understanding of the uh resource sector activity. Uh and the team that develops the projections for the resources and energy quarterly uh are the team that also support directly DQ. the specific >> [snorts] >> uh forecasts that are used that were used for the particular DQ projections you might be interested in will depend on the time of the year that that information needs to be gathered. There's a fairly substantial lead time in developing a number of these projections. So I'll uh take on notice the specific uh public library key publication that might have been used to support the uh any particular uh emissions projections publication from DQ. So, for example, in general, we we um provide uh the five-year forecasts to support uh the annual emissions projections that are provided at the end of the year. Those five-year forecasts coming out in March.
that's heartening. I've spent the last few days s searching for data to support modeling and projections and I'm always heartened when DA is providing data. Did Daiser consider the Treasury net zero forecast for fossil fuel production when it prepared its latest latest req
So um Senator I think the uh team works through a range of sources um possibly a bunch of them much more temporary than the uh 2024 Treasury modeling. Uh so um uh to say that we considered it would be I think a truism to say that we were uh modeling to reflect it I think would would not reflect what we do. We we aim to try and say reflect the expected impacts of price on price and quantities of uh emerging market conditions um at the time we we do each publication. So uh net zero policies around the world are obviously uh an important uh framing context for a number of the scenario for the number of the the forecasts that we
Right? So you're using well I'm going to be bold and I'm going to say you're using reality to inform your projections and then I'll let the rest of that sentence be unsaid. It's probably the best way to do that. On page 34 of Treasury's report, Australia's net zero transformation, Treasury Modeling and Analysis, chart 4.5 shows Treasuries forecast large falls in fossil fuel exports down by almost half between 2025 and 2030. Why is it that DIY's forecasts over the same five-year outlook are so much