Senate Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport Legislation Committee, , 5:50:23 to 5:57:45
Senators question the accuracy of sheep flock estimates in Western Australia, comparing ABS data with state-level figures and discussing industry decline.
Topics: Agricultural productivity
Speakers: Speaker 14, Speaker 13, Speaker 32, Speaker 9
and I guess this particularly feeds into this question about um, the supply chain grants in terms of money for processes. Um, is the department tracking flock numbers in WA? >> Yes. And >> what what's your current what's your current view? Because there's a few industry views out there. There's um, so what what do you think the current size
of the flock in WA is? Uh so senator um you'd be aware there's a range of estimates available. Um we are guided of course we have the uh the benefit of a there's obviously ABS data uh and then
deeper in WA. >> But are you are you basing your decisions your analysis your you know briefings to the minister on a particular set of numbers are you using Abe's numbers for example do you use a range of numbers? Do you
>> uh we certainly use Abe's numbers and we're also mindful of ABS data and DERD's numbers. Um we are aware of there's a a range of estimates in in the market right now but perhaps Dr. Greenville might like to provide further.
>> Go ahead.
>> Thanks Senator. Um so to inform the committee the ABS has just updated its flock estimates. They haven't been doing faulk estimates particularly at the state level for some time a bit like they've done with the beef numbers. They've got a new method that they've applied which now have a breakdown across different states and so we'll benchmark our estimates to the ABS numbers. Um these were released um in June when are they December sorry 2025. Um, in terms of West Australian flock numbers, the ABS now show that sheep numbers in Western Australia have declined from 13.1 million in 2021 to 11.5 million in 2024. Um, and so this reflects that longerterm decline in sheep numbers, but also a range of factors. We've seen a shift into cropping as you would be aware. Um and just as a comparison point a longer history of comparison point in 24 sorry 2004 2005 there are about 26 million
sheet in WA. >> Um but I've seen a lot lower numbers than that as I'm sure you have Dr. Greenville. >> Um I mean I think the current deep herd estimate is 8.6 million head. I mean that's a that's a
big discrepancy. Yeah, there are there are as you say a lot and so the ABS and we've been working with them to try and get more consistency about the approaches across and MLA and the like and so this is an estimate of all sheep effectively not just ones with you know we used to estimate sheep on farms with an estimated value of agricultural operations above $40,000 that threshold's no longer and so this is about all sheep on farms in WA and so from what we would say is that This is mostly the attempt to be the more accurate version and we've got confidence in the work that the ABS has done to try and go through and they've worked extensively with stakeholders to to try and get as much information about the different estimates that are out there, what the methodologies are and so forth in determining their new methodology that they have. I mean, I've
I've talked to stock agents who have seen 50% of their uh farm suppliers exit the industry. >> Yeah. uh you know to for the for the peak I guess numbers people to have such widely varying estimates of the current size of the sheep flock to me is very worrying in terms of um particularly the say the supply chain assistance grants where you know there's going to be a threshold under which processing in Western Australia becomes difficult if not impossible to do economically and there's already been talk of u processes not operating 5 days a week uh because there's not enough
sheepery. >> Yeah. I mean and certainly that longer history is not inconsistent with your story you know going back to you know 20 years or so the sheep flock was more than twice the size as what it is now in WA. Um I think with the numbers we have every confidence that the ABS has done a good deal of work. they've delayed the method and so forth to do extra consultation and so forth. So we're fairly confident that that they've done the work to to come up with a you know a robust estimate um and that's based on also the slaughter joining rates that we we collect as part of our surveys and a range of other kind of triangulation factors to make sure that they're right. But so I think over the longer history, you're right, there is this longerterm decline in the sheep flock. Um now whether that continues or not, we'll we'll we'll watch. There has been, as we know, fairly favorable market conditions for sheep meat um and more recently wool. So, we'll see how that plays out and and we feel that some of those factors in terms of the returns and we watch that when we map the you know the farm profitability that some of the profitability for sheep producers is
starting to improve as well. So do you map the net value of the sheep industry in state by state? Like what's been the decline since 21 in the value of the sheep industry in
Western Australia? >> Yeah. So we don't don't have a say a industry by state estimate. We've got the value of production overall nationally. Yeah, I know that the state DPIs do often their own estimates of state gross value of production. Um, but we don't track state by state in terms of value of production. >> So, who who does you say >> the the various state DPIs like in Western Australia, the Department of Primary Industry and I know Victoria do I have a feeling that WA do do a industry report annually about their
their gross value of production. So do you have any comment that you could make from uh the point of view of being the I guess the peak body about collecting these sorts of statistics on the West Australian state uh deep herds estimate of an 8.6 million flock.
>> I think our comment would be I guess we'll continue to work with them but we would base it towards more the ABS numbers is where we think the the actual
flock would be. But is that based on what's that based on? You think the ABS
methodology is better or >> Yeah, the ABS methodology is is being, you know, recently introduced. It's had robust consultation across industry, across peak bodies, across states. They they've worked with us. Um, and so they've really done a lot of work to try and bring that together. Obviously, you know, things will continue to improve over time, but we do have confidence in in the ABS and their numbers.
Um, >> happy to leave it there for now.