Senate Education and Employment Legislation Committee, , 9:05:48 to 9:10:37
Examination of Minister Clare's claims regarding a 30% increase in university enrollments and the use of projected versus actual data in public addresses.
Topics: Education, Government spending
Speakers: Senator Matt O'Sullivan, Speaker 33, Mr. Tony Cook, Unknown Speaker
from future campus uh dated October 9, alternative facts, damned alternative facts and statistics. Um, as this article points out, he incorrectly told university chancellors earlier this month that domestic enrollments on his watch had risen 30%. Claiming that claim was factually incorrect. and he subsequently clarified that it's true that if he excludes medicine and indigenous enrollment but he also neglected to mention uh that he was coming off of it was coming off a very low base as figures have been much higher in 2021 under the coalition. So as secretary are you aware of this issue in the minister's subsequent uh
correction? Senator, I think I am, but I'm going to go to my data experts that can help me on this one if that's okay. Yep.
>> Certainly. Certainly, Secretary. So, um I think your the article is referring to the minister's speech that he made to the chancellor's summit um 7th of >> Um I went back and had a had a look at that speech uh after this article. um came out uh the the speech in which the context with which he referred to this number that that kind of aspect of the speech was reflecting on the passage or the expected passage of the opening the doors of opportunity bill which is obviously a reference to the new managed growth funding system. It's within that context that this statement was made. So >> to correct me, would you?
>> But that's again projections >> not am I right and understand what you're saying
>> in terms of uh the next year that the reference to the next year number
>> uh well well he he claimed that there's been um an increase in enrollment. Am I >> am I right?
>> I don't have the speech with me, Senator. I'd have to go back and match the speech in totality with what's reported here.
>> Said on his watch, enrollments have risen by 30%. But your what you're talking about is is >> future.
>> I'm going to check that's actually what we're seeing.
>> I've got an extract from the speech here if that helps, Senator. So, it says it will open the doors of our opportunities wider. That's already started. When I got this job, uh 20 274,000 students started a university degree. Next year that number will jump to 354,000. That's a big jump. That's about 30%.
>> That's slightly different to how that's been presented in this.
>> So the way this is presented here, and I quote from this article or journal, whatever, however you refer to it, uh, in a validtory address of the final meeting of the university chancellor's council on Wednesday, Mr. Cla claimed that student commencements had grown 30% in his term. Now, so he he didn't claim that. Is that what you that your evidence?
>> Uh well, so my we can go back and and confirm, Senator, and we can take it on notice. I I wouldn't absolutely want to make sure that we're being 100% truthful to the committee. I did have a look at this. Uh that is my understanding of what he said. Um but let's take it on notice so that we can confirm for you.
>> We'll review the speech, Senator,
>> if you can if you can provide us with the speech
>> as well. I believe it's on the web. link
it to the website in that. >> Oh, that's the link to that. >> Looks like the speech. Yeah.
>> Oh, okay.
>> So, we'll have a look at it.
so either this is uh it seems it's been a little selective with with the data. Um,
>> not the way, >> sorry, not the way we've read the speech, Senator, because it's very clear it talks about next year as well. So, u, but again, we'll go back and have a look
>> Yeah. Maybe in the time we got here I might have another look at it as well. so is he using unpublished data is that
>> uh so that would have been projected data I understand is that correct
>> uh senator it's the the 2027 data uh uh data that have been provided to the department by the the universities about their forecast uh numbers of um comwell supported places that they will fill in 2027.
I mean, if you had the word projected in there, we wouldn't be having this discussion, would we?
>> Well, I think he did in the speech. It's >> that's the point I think we're trying to raise.
so let me ask a slightly different use