Senate Education and Employment Legislation Committee [Part 2], , 1:14:44 to 1:23:42
The committee examines national planning levels for international students and how visa processing decisions affect university revenue.
Topics: Education, Trade policy
Speakers: Senator Paul Scarr, Speaker 10, Tony Cook, Speaker 2, Unknown Speaker, Jasmina Joldic
>> Yeah, you keep going. So, we were due to go to um a tech at 7:15. So, just so you're aware about 20 minutes behind, but there's no other senator seeking the call. So, until you're ready to move on, we're
>> there's no other senator here. Chair.
it's not. So, it's self-evident, isn't it?
>> It is self-evident. Yes. So, I don't >> Quizzically. Uh can I just ask about um planning levels in terms of international students? >> Uh so and and this is in the context of uh we had the committee hearing with respect to the opening the doors of opportunity university uh bill. >> Yep. uh and we got uh there were various various submissions made by I think nearly every university or uh group representing every university in Australia with respect to that and and there was some feedback given with respect to where we're up to in terms of international student numbers. So this year the national planning level for international commencements is 295,000. Is that correct? Correct.
>> Planning level is 295,000. Correct.
>> Yeah. And that's when we're talking about a year, is that a financial year or calendar year?
>> Calendar year.
>> Yeah. So the year up to 31 December 2026. Correct. >> So given we're nearly November. Uh what do you expect? Do you have any early indication as to what the final number will be?
>> So Senator, absolutely. I'll get the team to talk about it. We actually publish this information on our website. So we actually provide update information as to where we're
progressing. So what's the latest and is there any any information that's later than the website?
>> So the website um Senate is current as at 23rd of October. So last Friday that's the latest information that we've published. Um it shows that uh there are um currently already in terms of international students that have commenced and that meet the definition of a new overseas student commencement that there are 233,600 um commenced in 2026. The information also shows um a total pipeline. So when we add in um the um additional students or expected students to start sometime in 2026, that figure is uh 244,200.
>> Okay. So that's 50,000 less about 18 17% less than what was expected. Is that right? Uh well the
level isn't necessarily a a forecast of what we expect but it is um uh approximately 50,000 uh 45,000 um uh sorry 50 it is 50,000 less than the 295,000.
>> Yeah. Well it's not a or what's the let me put it this way. What's the purpose of the national planning level? Well,
it's um
>> to assist universities to plan, isn't
it? >> It it is. It is, Senator. Um uh it's just that um the the national planning level is is is kind of set based on um the the level determined by government. We wouldn't necessarily say that it is a a forecast of demand because at this point, as you can see, um the the universities and other higher education providers are tracking in beneath that.
Uh, you might take this on notice, but I would have thought at least in terms of recent news, you'll be able to answer it. Has there ever been that discrepancy between of in the order of 50,000 between the national planning level and the actual uh number of commencements?
>> The second year, Senator,
>> sorry,
>> this is only the second year.
>> So, what was the last year? Last year
was um the number was less >> and 270,000 and we reached >> 282,000.
>> Sorry. Last year it was
>> so last 70,000.
>> So it's 270,000
>> and it was 282
>> and we got 282.
>> So it was 12,000 above. >> But this year it's 50,000 less, but it's it's a the percentage difference is far greater. Yeah. >> So discrepancy between the planning level and the what we expect the actual to be is is quite material. Correct.
>> Uh [clears throat] yes, there's a 55,000 uh commencement difference.
>> Okay. So, what sort of impact does that have on the universities? And this sort of comes back to the evidence we received during the inquiry that uh there was this planning level and universities were aware of the issues uh arising from the processing of visas through the Department of Home Affairs. uh the increase in the rejection rates of people applying for visas, what impact does that have on the university sector, the fact that it appears there's going to be 55,000 or in the order of 50,000 less commencements this year than were originally planned. How does that how does that impact the system when it cascades through?
>> So, I'd probably make a few observations, Senator. The first is that um the national planning level applies to uh universities, other higher education providers and vocational education and training providers. So some of that um uh undershoot if you like um for um uh new overseas student commencements actually relates uh to the approximately sort of 800 900 vet providers in relation to universities. Each university um uh has their own uh processes in place for budgeting. Um uh we know uh um we we don't collect this information on a university by university basis but we know from discussions with them that um some universities will budget um at their national planning level. Some uh universities will budget um at a different uh uh at a different number based on where they see their their market activity. Not all not all universities necessarily expected to reach their national planning level um uh as part of their budgeting process.
>> But we're talking here about a material difference, right? So um you know typically from a financial perspective something between 5 and 10% is cons considered material and if you're trying to prepare a budget for a year and you're talking about a 16% difference in terms of this cohort that's going to have a material impact on on your budget isn't it? How do you plan how do you
So, so Senator, I'm sure that there are um some universities that um based on um the number of uh student commencements that they've had this year um uh where uh that number does sort of fall short of what they might have budgeted for
>> which will have a material impact in terms of the management of their budget-
>> which I'm sure would would would have an impact. Um international student revenue is is one component of revenue for um universities. Um what I would reiterate though is that um the the number of um uh student commencements that universities uh will have had in 2026 is not um uh is is not a a pure function of the national planning level and the allocation. Um
>> what else is what else has an impact?
Well, so the the um the visa processing um and the visa outcomes that are determined by the Department of Home Affairs in relation to the evidence that um is provided by applicants whether or not they meet the
>> it's really it's it's the visa processing decisions of the Department of Home Affairs that are is driving this result. Is that correct?
>> It's one factor, Sander. There's other factors. For example, in China, Chinese universities are increasing in terms of the rankings. And so, we're finding that Chinese students, some Chinese students are choosing to stay in China rather than go overseas because the quality of their universities has increased dramatically. Okay. >> Um, but also, you know, this is part of the bigger picture. A tech on next, so I'm not to go into too much detail, but you know, needs based funding, managed growth, additional places, additional domestic places will offset some of those things in relation to international education as well. And I'm sure ASC can talk about those things when they're at the table.
>> But I mean I've in my previous shadow portfolio responsibilities uh I know the the impact of the uh rejection rate on on on visa applications. It has a material impact doesn't it?
>> Uh depends which university you're at Senator. So Chinese students for example the the visa refusal rate for Chinese students is very very low. If you're a university that has high degree of Chinese students, the impact is minimal.
>> Okay. All right. I'll leave that one there. I've got just some u a few questions for the uh gender based violence unit.