Senate Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport Legislation Committee, , 3:58:35 to 4:05:53
ABARES and NEMA discuss the impact of heat and El Niño on farm profits and the quarterly forecasts for agricultural commodity production and food security.
Topics: Climate change, Agricultural productivity, Food security
Speakers: Matt Lowe, Senator Vanessa Bleyer, Miss Victoria Anderson, Speaker 19, Heather McGilvray
>> Um I think the uh the explanation there is that the time frames for those two documents are different. So the ENRA operates over a much longer time horizon. So the risk rating is sort of varies. it it sort of has a broader span whereas the NAP looks at sort of the shorter term response so it's the adaptation plan so I think that might explain why the risk ratings are different um but those uh particular pieces of work were led by the department of climate change energy environment and water and also the Australian climate services so they would be really well placed to explain the kind of technical differences on the risk ratings
>> thank you and so one thing that the two reports do have in common is that They both agree that the main impact on productivity is rising heat, so warming Since both of these reports were published, we now have the World Meteorological Organization firmly establishing an El Nino in the tropical Pacific and the impact that it is having and will continue to have and it's only going to get worse on the increased heat of our weather that we are already suffering. So what additional planning and economic scenario modeling has the Department of Agriculture done this calendar year to prepare for these and other extreme weather events so that we can protect our agricultural industry and protect domestic food security in
>> Uh I I think you're raising a really important issue, Senator. Um again we don't disagree with the um the implications of climate change um for the sector. Um and again I think that it's well acknowledged by the sector as well. Um we can have a come to the table to talk about um I guess the estimates that they've done in relation to um those particular climatic events that you're referring to. But perhaps more broadly just to kind of I guess ground your line of questioning in the types of things that we think about and the types of analysis that we look to support the sector with um and support ourselves with as well. Abezz has done some work around climate adjusted productivity estimates um that estimate that indicate that broadacre productivity growth particularly for cropping and mixed farms would have been materially higher under longr run average climate conditions um and since 2000 hotter and drying conditions have reduced measured productivity growth um especially in southern crop cropping regions although innovation as Mr. Blong mentioned and adaptation by farmers have offset part of that impact. Um in addition to that that analysis also supports cl so climate conditions since 2000 have reduced average annual broadacre farm profits by around 18 to 23% relative to what they would have been under the climate conditions experienced during 1950 to 2000. And we also um anticipate and and we do work to understand how cropping regions might geographically change over the course of the next 25 years in response to changing climatic conditions as well including hotter and drier conditions. But in respect to your specific comment, I guess what I was trying to reassure you, Senator, is that we are very concerned with these um the implications of a changing climate for the agriculture sector. um we calibrate our programs to respond to these things. Um but we also think it's important that ultimately farmers and farmer capability is one of the main drivers of productivity in the sector and their ability to access up-to-date research um and innovation and and that tends to be where our focus is. But I'll pass to
>> I'm just going to jump in there too mentioned this year. So the national emergency management uh agency NEMA um actually every year runs scenarios based on the current risks. So heat is very much factored into NEMA's work. We received a briefing on it the other day uh at the secretaries board that I attended. So there's a range of scenarios ranging from you mentioned the Eleno or super Elnino that some people are calling it um obviously a huge concern but actually for Australia NEMA has done work to assess the specific risk factors affecting all parts of the country. So um for example um the the heat scenario is can be quite is quite severe. All all areas are high risk for bushfire but they've identified areas that are higher risk this season because of specific factors. There's also examples of higher propensity for um rainfall and flooding events in certain parts of the country despite the fact that we're in an El Nino how that manifests for Australia and different parts of Australia will be quite different. So Nema does a people for estimates they would have a much more detail on that but just to reassure you in a in a short-term sense Mr. Loe's covered very well the sort of long-term and and um Dr. Galliano can add to that, but in the short term, it's another part of our department, but they participate pretty strongly in that NEMA process as well, given the impact on farmers.
>> Thank you very much to all of those that answered my question. It's always very pleasing to people like me in places like this when the questions actually answered. So, thank you. Um, just a couple of um quick questions on um the proposed bilateral agreement between
>> at the table as well. Um, >> sorry, what was that? We do have Abears at the table as well who can reflect on I guess the current climactic conditions but pleasingly I think as an overall kind of comment um the El Nino um kind of weather event has not been as delurus um to um agricultural production in Australia at this stage as was initially might have been envisaged but Mr.
Galliano. Yeah, thanks. So, in fact, Dano Abears, the one thing I'd add is yes, we do quarterly forecasts of the value of agricultural production. So, we cover cropping and livestock. Uh the most recent one was in September and that does take into account the uh predicted weather conditions. Uh and even given those conditions predicted back then, we're still forecasting the value of uh farm output to be around that hundred billion dollar uh mark. And that did include the dry expected seasonal conditions northern New South Wales, southern Queensland. We're about to do our next lot of forecasts and actually it looks like the conditions up that way the last month or so have been pretty favorable. So we may well end up revising some of those numbers up. Uh it's it's more than just El Nino. We also look at the Indian Ocean dipole and uh many other climate drivers. So um we take the whole picture.
>> What document does that information sit
in? Uh we put out a a thing every quarter called agricultural commodities. Uh it's got our forecasts in it. I'm sure we can share that link with you.
>> And the most recent one was September, >> Thank you. So that's readily available on the internet. So I don't need >> Yeah. The next one will be on the 1st or
2nd of December. Yep.
>> Thank you very much. Did you have something you wanted to add?
>> No,